پیش‌بینی تغییرات پوشش جنگلی منطقه بویراحمد با استفاده از مدل Geomod

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد جنگلداری، گروه جنگل، مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه جنگل، مرتع و آبخیزداری ، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه جنگل، مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران.

4 گروه منابع طبیعی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه یاسوج

چکیده

پایش و بررسی تغییرات کاربری اراضی در عرصه­های جنگلی، اطلاعات قابل قبولی را به­منظور مدیریت کارآمد این منابع فراهم می­کند. در این پژوهش به­منظور ارزیابی تغییرات پوشش جنگلی قسمتی از بخش مرکزی شهرستان بویراحمد از تصاویر ماهواره­ای لندست سال 1366 و 1392 استفاده شد. طبقه­بندی تصاویر با الگوریتم حداکثر احتمال در چهار طبقه شامل کشاورزی، جنگل، مرتع و مسکونی یا دیگر کاربر­ی­ها انجام شد و به­منظور پیش‌بینی تغییرات پوشش جنگلی برای سال 1418 از مدل Geomod استفاده شد. ضریب کاپا حاصل از طبقه­بندی سال 1366 و 1392 به­ترتیب برابر 89/0 و 88/0 به­دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد در دورۀ زمانی 1392 -1366 حدود 6/8395 هکتار از مساحت جنگل­ها کاسته شده است و در دوره 1418 -1392 نیز مساحت جنگل­ها با کاهش 7/9938 هکتاری روبه­رو خواهد شد. نتایج مدل­سازی با رگرسیون لجستیک به­ترتیب با Pseudo R2 و ضریب ROC، 24/0 و 73/0، نشان­دهنده توانایی مناسب مدل در برآورد تغییرات جنگل در 26 سال گذشته است. نتایج مربوط به شبیه‌سازی نقشه پوشش زمین سال 1392 نشان داد که مدل Geomod توانایی و قابلیت بالایی در مدل‌سازی تغییرات پوشش زمین دارد که در این بررسی صحت و درستی نقشه‌های پوشش زمین حدود 90 درصد بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of forest cover changes for Boyer-Ahmad region using Geomod model

نویسندگان [English]

  • ّFatemeh Nozari 1
  • Alireza Salehi 2
  • Mohsen Armin 3
  • Mohsen Farzin 4
1 MSc. Student of Forestry, Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Yasouj University, Yasouj, I.R. Iran
3 Assistant Prof., Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Yasouj University, Yasouj, I.R. Iran
4 Yasouj University
چکیده [English]

Monitoring of land use changes in forest areas provides acceptable information for better planning and management on forest resources. In this study, to assess the changes of the forest cover in the central part of Boyer-Ahmad County in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province in southwest of Iran, satellite imageries of two different Landsat time series including Landsat 5, TM satellite data (30.6.1987), and Landsat 8, OLI-TIRS data (23.7.2013) were used. Supervised classification was carried out by applying the Maximum Likelihood Algorithm and LMM model (Matrix Multiplication pictures). Moreover, Logistic regression and Geomod model were used to provide validation map and prediction of forest cover changes in 2039, respectively. Land cover maps achieved from the study area showed that there is a reduction of about 8395 hectares in the forest area during the past 26 years (1987-2013). Moreover, it is predicted that the forest area will decrease around 9938 hectares during the coming 26 years. The results showed that the kappa coefficient obtained from the supervised classification on the satellite imageries in 1987 and 2013 were 0.89 and 0.88, respectively. Moreover, the results of Logistic regression with pseudo R2 and ROC were 0.24 and 0.73, respectively, which indicate that the obtained model is relatively adapted to the real changes and there is an appropriate ability for the model to estimate the forest changes in the last 26 years. Results of simulation of the forest cover changes in 2013 reveal that the Geomod model is a good tool for forecasting the forest cover changes. The accuracy and precision of the obtained forest cover maps is about 90 percent.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Forest cover changes
  • Remote sensing
  • Classification
  • Land use
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