کاربرد مدل‌های گپ در پیش‌بینی رویش سطح مقطع درختان گونه‌های تجاری جنگل‌های هیرکانی با احتساب شرایط اقلیمی (بررسی موردی: بخش گرازبن جنگل آموزشی - پژوهشی خیرود)‏

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 استاد، گروه جنگلداری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران‏

3 استاد، گروه مکانیک ماشین‌های کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج‏، ایران

چکیده

بررسی­ها و شبیه­سازی­های حاصل از مدل­های اقلیمی جهانی نشان می­دهند که الگوهای دما و بارندگی در 50 الی 100 سال آینده، متحمل تغییراتی خواهند شد که به­نوبه خود می­توانند الگوهای رویشی توده­های جنگلی را تحت­ تأثیر قرار دهند. به­دلیل عدم توانایی مدل­های موجود در شبیه­سازی توده­های جنگلی تحت­تأثیر تغییر اقلیم، مدل هیبرید JABOWA-4 برای کشف پویایی آینده تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی مختلف، و همچنین به­دلیل عدم قطعیت روند تغییر اقلیم در آینده، سه سناریوی اقلیمی به­منظور کشف توسعة جهانی تحت تأثیر انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ای در این پژوهش استفاده شدند. پس از مقایسة نتایج شبیه­سازی و ارزش­های واقعی رویش قطری، R2 و RMSE به­ترتیب 98/0و 734/1 (cm2) محاسبه شد، که نشان­گر همبستگی بالای دو ارزش است. پاسخ گونه­ها به­ تغییر اقلیم جداگانه ارزیابی شد که راش و افرا با کاهش 31 و 25 درصدی رویش قطری، رابطة منفی قوی به­ تغییر اقلیم از خود نشان دادند. گونة بلوط ابتدا روندی افزایشی، سپس کاهشی 17 درصدی پیش ­گرفته و ممرز روندی افزایشی با مقدار کمتر از رویش­ واقعی را به­تصویر کشید. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که مدل­های گپ عملکرد به­نسبت خوبی در فراهم آوردن پیش­بینی­های محصول جنگل تحت­تأثیر تغییر اقلیم از خود نشان می­دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of gap models in projection of basal area increment of commercial trees in the ‎Hyrcanian region based on climate change effects (Case study: Gorazbon district, Kheyrud forest ‎research station)‎

نویسندگان [English]

  • shirin Varkouhi 1
  • Manoochehr Namiranian 2
  • Pedram Attarod 2
  • Mahmoud Omid 3
1 PhD Candidate of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj‎‎, I. R. Iran
2 Professor, Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of ‎‎Tehran, Karaj‎‎, I. R. Iran
3 Professor, Department of Agricultural Machinery, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, ‎University of ‎Tehran, Karaj‎ ‎‎, I. R. Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change studies and simulations conducted by GCM models show that patterns of temperature and rainfall will change over the next 50 to 100 years can affect patterns of forest stands increment. Growth and yield models do not have the ability to simulation forest stands under the effect of climate change. Due to lack of efficient models, JABOWA-4 as a hybrid model that can evaluate the population dynamic under climate change scenarios, and can explore the long-term aspects of forest composition, was applied in this study. In order to uncertainty of climate change trend in future, three greenhouse emission scenarios were formulated to explore future global developments with special emphasis on greenhouse gases. After comparison of modeled and real values of diameter growth, R2 and RMSE were calculated to be 0.98 and 1.734 (cm2), respectively, indicating a good correlation between two mentioned values. The response of species to climate change were assessed separately for Beech and Maple with 31 and 25 percent reduction in DBH increment, respectively, wich showed a negative response to climate change. Oak projected to increase slightly and after that decreased by17 percent under climate change and Hornbeam showed positive response to climate change but less than real values. The results of this study indicated that gap models are good at providing forest yield prediction affected by climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Growth and yield model
  • Simulation

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پژوهش و توسعه جنگل
دوره 7، شماره 1
خرداد 1400
صفحه 77-92

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