مدل‌سازی پراکنش و پیش‌بینی رویشگاه بالقوه گونه سرخدار (Taxus baccata L.) در جنگل‌های هیرکانی ایران‌

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استاد گروه جنگلداری دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استاد گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

4 دانش آموخته دکترای جنگل - دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

در این پژوهش با بهره­گیری از چهار روش مدل‌سازی متداول در ارزیابی رویشگاه بالقوه گونه‌ها (مدل‌های خطی و جمعی تعمیم‌یافته، درخت طبقه­بندی و جنگل تصادفی) و نقشه متغیرهای زیست‌اقلیمی و توپوگرافی، نقشه مطلوبیت رویشگاه گونه سرخدار در جنگل‌های هیرکانی تهیه شد. ارزیابی مدل‌ها با استفاده از معیار AUC (GLM=863/0، GAM=871/0، CTA=781/0 و RF=922/0) نشان داد که مدل جنگل تصادفی دارای بهترین عملکرد است که در آن، درصد شیب مهم‌ترین و شاخص تابش خورشیدی کم‌اهمیت‌ترین متغیرها هستند. این پژوهش نشان داد که احتمال حضور گونه سرخدار در منطقه مورد بررسی از شیب 30 درصد به بعد بیشتر می‌شود و بعدازآن ثابت می‌ماند. در شرایط کنونی، مساحت رویشگاه‌های مطلوب و بالقوه برای گونه سرخدار در حدود 5/10 درصد منطقه مورد بررسی را دربر می‌گیرد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می­دهد که در حال حاضر و شرایط اقلیمی کنونی، قسمت­های شرقی و مرکزی جنگل‌های شمال ایران پتانسیل بالاتری برای حضور گونه سرخدار دارند که این امر به مدیریت، احیا و حفاظت از این گونه با ارزش کمک خواهد کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the potential habitat of English yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kourosh Ahmadi 1
  • seyed Mohsen Hosseini 2
  • Masoud Tabari 3
  • Zahra Nouri 4
2 Faculty of Natural Resources Tarbiat Modares University
3 Faculty of Natural Resources Tarbiat Modares University
4 Ph.D. graduate University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

In this study, using four commonly used modeling methods for assessing the potential habitat of yew species (generalized linear and additive models, classification and regression tree and random forest) and maps of the bioclimatic and topographic, the suitability map of the yew species in Hyrcanian forests was prepared. The evaluation of models by using AUC criterion (GLM=0.863, GAM=0.871, CTA=0.781, and RF=0.922) showed that the random forest model has the best performance in which slope percentage and solar radiation index are the most and least important variables, respectively. The present study showed that the presence probability of yew species in relation to slope percentage in the study area increases from 30% and then levels off. In the current conditions, the area of suitable habitats for yew species is about 10.5% of the studied area. The results of this research indicated that in the current climatic conditions, the suitable areas for presence of yew species are in east and center of the study area that will help to manage, protect and restore the habitats of this invaluable species.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bioclimatic variables
  • English yew
  • Habitat suitability
  • Species distribution models
- Aertsen, W., V. Kint, J. Van Orshoven, K. Özkan & B. Muys, 2010. Comparison and ranking of different modelling techniques for prediction of site index in Mediterranean mountain forests, Ecological modelling, 221(8): 1119-1130.
- Bučas, M., U. Bergström, A. L. Downie, G. Sundblad, M. Gullström, M. Von Numers & M. Lindegarth, 2013. Empirical modelling of benthic species distribution, abundance, and diversity in the Baltic Sea: evaluating the scope for predictive mapping using different modelling approaches, ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70(6): 1233-1243.
- Claessens, L., P. H. Verburg, J. M. Schoorl & A. Veldkamp, 2006. Contribution of topographically based landslide hazard modelling to the analysis of the spatial distribution and ecology of kauri (Agathis australis), Landscape Ecology, 21(1): 63-76.
- Clark, J., Y. Wang & P. V. August, 2014. Assessing current and projected suitable habitats for tree-of-heaven along the Appalachian Trail, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 369(1643): 20130192.
- Cutler, D. R., T. C. Edwards Jr, K. H. Beard, A. Cutler, K. T. Hess, J. Gibson & J. J. Lawler, 2007. Random forests for classification in ecology, Ecology, 88(11): 2783-2792.
- Dhar, A., H. Ruprecht, R. Klumpp & H. Vacik, 2007. Comparison of ecological condition and conservation status of English yew population in two Austrian gene conservation forests, Journal of Forestry research, 18(3): 181-186.
- Dormann, C. F., S. J. Schymanski, J. Cabral, I. Chuine, C. Graham, F. Hartig, M. Kearney, X. Morin, C. Römermann, B. Schröder & A. Singer, 2012. Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy, Journal of Biogeography, 39(12): 2119-2131.
- Ebady, A. & A. Omidvar, 2011. Relationship between some ecological factors and distribution of yew tree (Taxus baccuta L.) in Arasbaran forests (Case study: Ilganechay and Horand regions), Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 19(3): 327-339. (In Persian)
- Esmailzadeh, O., S. M. Hoseini & M. Tabari, 2007. A phytosociological study of English yew (Taxus baccata L.) in Afratakhteh reserve, Pajouhesh & Sazandegi, 74: 17-24. (In Persian)
- Golalizadeh, D., 2001. Phytosociological study on natural Taxus baccata in forests of Gorgan, Qaemshahr and Noor. MSc thesis. Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources. Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources. Gorgan, Iran, 120 p. (In Persian)
- Guisan, A., J. Edwards, C. Thomas & T. Hastie, T. 2002. Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene, Ecological Modelling, 157(2-3): 89-100.
- Guisan, A., W. Thuiller & N. E. Zimmermann, 2017. Habitat suitability and distribution models: with applications in R. first edition. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 478 p
- Haidarian Aghakhani, M., R. Tamartash, Z. Jafarian, M. Tarkesh Esfahani & M. Tatian, 2017. Predicting the impacts of climate change on Persian oak (Quercus brantii) using Species Distribution Modelling in Central Zagros for conservation planning, Journal of Environmental Sciences, 43(3): 497-511. (In Persian)
- Hidalgo, P. J., J. M. Marín, J. Quijada & J. M. Moreira, 2008. A spatial distribution model of cork oak (Quercus suber) in southwestern Spain: a suitable tool for reforestation, Forest Ecology and Management, 255(1): 25-34.‏
- Iszkuleo, G., A. Boratynski, Y. Didukh, K. Romaschenko & N. Pryazhko, 2005. Changes of population structure of Taxus baccata L. during 25 years in protected area (Carpathians, Western Ukraine), Polish Journal of Ecology, 53(1): 13-23.
- Iszkuło, G., Y. Didukh, M. J. Giertych, A. K. Jasińska, K. Sobierajska & J. Szmyt, 2012. Weak competitive ability may explain decline of Taxus baccataAnnals of Forest Science, 69(6): 705-712.
- Lesani, M. R., 1999. Yew, Taxus baccata L. Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland, Islamic Republic of Iran, Iran. 215 p. (In Persian)
- Linares, J. C., 2013. Shifting limiting factors for population dynamics and conservation status of the endangered English yew (Taxus baccata L., Taxaceae), Forest Ecology and Management, 291: 119-127.
- Loarie, S. R., P. B. Duffy, H. Hamilton, G. P. Asner, C. B. Field & D. D. Ackerly, 2009. The velocity of climate change, Nature, 462(7276): 1052-1055.
- Jafari Afrapoli, M., K. Sefidi, S. Waez-Mousavi & S. Varamesh, 2018. Qualitative and quantitative evaluation of dead trees in English yew (Taxus baccata) in Afratakhteh Forests, Golestan Province, and northeastern Hyrcanian forests, Journal of Forest Research and Development, 3(4): 305-316.
- Mohammadi, A., S. J. Alavi & S. M. Hoseini, 2017. Predicting the habitat suitability of Wych elm (Ulmus glabra Huds.) in Kheyroud Forest, Journal of Wood and Forest Science and Technology, 24(3): 67-80. (In Persian)
- Naimi, B., N. A. Hamm, T. A. Groen, A. K. Skidmore & A. G. Toxopeus, 2014. Where is positional uncertainty a problem for species distribution modelling?, Ecography, 37(2): 191-203.
- Pino-Mejías, R., M. D. Cubiles-de-la-Vega, M. Anaya-Romero, A. Pascual-Acosta, A. Jordán-López & N. Bellinfante-Crocci, 2010. Predicting the potential habitat of oaks with data mining models and the R system, Environmental Modelling & Software, 25(7): 826-836.
- Phillips, S. J., M. Dudík, J. Elith, C. H. Graham, A. Lehmann, J. Leathwick & S. Ferrier, 2009. Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data, Ecological Applications, 19(1): 181-197.
- Piovesan, G., E. P. Saba, F. Biondi, A. Alessandrini, A. Di Filippo & B. Schirone, 2009. Population ecology of yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Central Apennines: spatial patterns and their relevance for conservation strategies, Plant Ecology, 205(1): 23-46.
- Pourbabaei, H., K. Djavanshir, M. F. Makhdoum & M. Zobiery, 1998. Distribution of common yew (Taxus baccata L.) and biodiversity of woody species of its sites in the Guilan Forests, Journal of Enviromental Sciences, 24: 29-40. (In Persian)
- Remya, K., A. Ramachandran & S. Jayakumar, 2015. Predicting the current and future suitable habitat distribution of Myristica dactyloides Gaertn. using MaxEnt model in the Eastern Ghats, India, Ecological Engineering, 82: 184-188.
- Sadat Fatemi Azarkhavarani, S., M. Rahimi, M. Tarkesh & H. Ravanbakhsh, 2017. Prediction of Juniperus excelsa M. Bieb. geographical distribution using by climate data under the conditions of current and future in Semnan Province, Iranian Journal of Forest, 9(2): 233-248. (In Persian)
- Thomas, P. A. & X. Garcia-Martí, 2015. Response of European yews to climate change: A review, Forest Systems, 24(3): 1-11.
- Wang, H., X. Shao, Y. Jiang, X. Fang & S. Wu, 2013. The impacts of climate change on the radial growth of Pinus koraiensis along elevations of Changbai Mountain in northeastern China, Forest Ecology and Management, 289: 333-340.
- Wang, T., G. Wang, J. Innes, C. Nitschke & H. Kang, 2016. Climatic niche models and their consensus projections for future climates for four major forest tree species in the Asia–Pacific region, Forest Ecology and Management, 360: 357-366.