مدل‌سازی پراکنش و پیش‌بینی رویشگاه بالقوه گونه سرخدار (Taxus baccata L.) در جنگل‌های هیرکانی ایران‌

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استاد گروه جنگلداری دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استاد گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

4 دانش آموخته دکترای جنگل - دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

در این پژوهش با بهره­گیری از چهار روش مدل‌سازی متداول در ارزیابی رویشگاه بالقوه گونه‌ها (مدل‌های خطی و جمعی تعمیم‌یافته، درخت طبقه­بندی و جنگل تصادفی) و نقشه متغیرهای زیست‌اقلیمی و توپوگرافی، نقشه مطلوبیت رویشگاه گونه سرخدار در جنگل‌های هیرکانی تهیه شد. ارزیابی مدل‌ها با استفاده از معیار AUC (GLM=863/0، GAM=871/0، CTA=781/0 و RF=922/0) نشان داد که مدل جنگل تصادفی دارای بهترین عملکرد است که در آن، درصد شیب مهم‌ترین و شاخص تابش خورشیدی کم‌اهمیت‌ترین متغیرها هستند. این پژوهش نشان داد که احتمال حضور گونه سرخدار در منطقه مورد بررسی از شیب 30 درصد به بعد بیشتر می‌شود و بعدازآن ثابت می‌ماند. در شرایط کنونی، مساحت رویشگاه‌های مطلوب و بالقوه برای گونه سرخدار در حدود 5/10 درصد منطقه مورد بررسی را دربر می‌گیرد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می­دهد که در حال حاضر و شرایط اقلیمی کنونی، قسمت­های شرقی و مرکزی جنگل‌های شمال ایران پتانسیل بالاتری برای حضور گونه سرخدار دارند که این امر به مدیریت، احیا و حفاظت از این گونه با ارزش کمک خواهد کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the potential habitat of English yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kourosh Ahmadi 1
  • seyed Mohsen Hosseini 2
  • Masoud Tabari 3
  • Zahra Nouri 4
2 Faculty of Natural Resources Tarbiat Modares University
3 Faculty of Natural Resources Tarbiat Modares University
4 Ph.D. graduate University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

In this study, using four commonly used modeling methods for assessing the potential habitat of yew species (generalized linear and additive models, classification and regression tree and random forest) and maps of the bioclimatic and topographic, the suitability map of the yew species in Hyrcanian forests was prepared. The evaluation of models by using AUC criterion (GLM=0.863, GAM=0.871, CTA=0.781, and RF=0.922) showed that the random forest model has the best performance in which slope percentage and solar radiation index are the most and least important variables, respectively. The present study showed that the presence probability of yew species in relation to slope percentage in the study area increases from 30% and then levels off. In the current conditions, the area of suitable habitats for yew species is about 10.5% of the studied area. The results of this research indicated that in the current climatic conditions, the suitable areas for presence of yew species are in east and center of the study area that will help to manage, protect and restore the habitats of this invaluable species.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bioclimatic variables
  • English yew
  • Habitat suitability
  • Species distribution models
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