Understanding the effects of climate change on wildfires in the Iranian Northern Zagros Forests

Background and objectives: Wildfires represent a significant environmental challenge globally, with climate change exacerbating their frequency and severity in many regions. In the Iranian Northern Zagros Forests, a Mediterranean climate prevails, characterized by hot, dry summers and relatively mild winters, rendering these forests particularly susceptible to fire. Understanding the relationship between climate change and wildfires in this region is essential for informing effective management strategies and mitigating associated risks. This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change on wildfires in the Iranian Northern Zagros Forests, focusing on changes in fire frequency and extent over a 17-year period from 2006 to 2023.
Methodology: To achieve this objective, we employed a combination of statistical analyses, including Pearson's correlation and multiple linear regression (MLR), using climate data and historical wildfire records. We analyzed the relationship between the number and extent of fires and climatic variables such as average annual temperature and relative humidity. Pearson's correlation was utilized to assess the strength and direction of the linear relationship between these variables, while MLR was employed to predict the burned area based on temperature and humidity.
Results: From 2006 to 2023, the forests of Sardasht experienced a significant number of fires, with the most occurring in the months of August, July, September, and June. The greatest scorched area of 211.62 hectares was reported in 1402, while the most frequent fires were recorded in 1400. This tendency is likely to continue. The study found a positive and significant relationship at the 95 percent confidence level between the number of fires and the burned area in Sardasht forests and the average annual temperature, but no significant relationship was found between other climate data and fire factors. The results of the MLR analysis demonstrated the predictive power of temperature and humidity in determining the burned area, highlighting their significance as drivers of wildfire activity in the region.
Conclusion: In conclusion, our findings underscore the escalating threat of wildfires in the Iranian Northern Zagros Forests driven by climate change-induced changes in temperature and humidity. The observed increase in fire frequency and extent highlights the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate fire risks and enhance resilience in fire-prone ecosystems. By integrating scientific research with stakeholder engagement and policy action, we can develop effective wildfire management strategies that balance ecological conservation with socio-economic priorities, thereby ensuring the long-term viability of forest ecosystems and the communities that depend on them.