Understanding the effects of climate change on wildfires in the Iranian Northern Zagros Forests

Document Type : Scientific article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, I.R. Iran

2 Master of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

Abstract

Background and objectives: Wildfires represent a significant environmental challenge globally, with climate change exacerbating their frequency and severity in many regions. In the Iranian Northern Zagros Forests, a Mediterranean climate prevails, characterized by hot, dry summers and relatively mild winters, rendering these forests particularly susceptible to fire. Understanding the relationship between climate change and wildfires in this region is essential for informing effective management strategies and mitigating associated risks. This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change on wildfires in the Iranian Northern Zagros Forests, focusing on changes in fire frequency and extent over a 17-year period from 2006 to 2023.
Methodology: To achieve this objective, we employed a combination of statistical analyses, including Pearson's correlation and multiple linear regression (MLR), using climate data and historical wildfire records. We analyzed the relationship between the number and extent of fires and climatic variables such as average annual temperature and relative humidity. Pearson's correlation was utilized to assess the strength and direction of the linear relationship between these variables, while MLR was employed to predict the burned area based on temperature and humidity.
Results: From 2006 to 2023, the forests of Sardasht experienced a significant number of fires, with the most occurring in the months of August, July, September, and June. The greatest scorched area of 211.62 hectares was reported in 1402, while the most frequent fires were recorded in 1400. This tendency is likely to continue. The study found a positive and significant relationship at the 95 percent confidence level between the number of fires and the burned area in Sardasht forests and the average annual temperature, but no significant relationship was found between other climate data and fire factors. The results of the MLR analysis demonstrated the predictive power of temperature and humidity in determining the burned area, highlighting their significance as drivers of wildfire activity in the region.
Conclusion: In conclusion, our findings underscore the escalating threat of wildfires in the Iranian Northern Zagros Forests driven by climate change-induced changes in temperature and humidity. The observed increase in fire frequency and extent highlights the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate fire risks and enhance resilience in fire-prone ecosystems. By integrating scientific research with stakeholder engagement and policy action, we can develop effective wildfire management strategies that balance ecological conservation with socio-economic priorities, thereby ensuring the long-term viability of forest ecosystems and the communities that depend on them.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Abatzoglou, J.T.; Williams, A.P., Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2016, 113 (42), 11770-11775.
Abram, N.J.; Henley, B.J.; Sen Gupta, A.; Lippmann, T.J.; Clarke, H.; Dowdy, A.J.; Sharples, J.J.; Nolan, R.H.; Zhang, T.; Wooster, M.J; Wurtzel, J.B., Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia. Communications Earth & Environment 2021, 2 (1), 1-17.
Aleemahmoodi Sarab, S.; Feghhi, J.; Jabbarian Amiri, B.; Danehkar, A.; Attarod, P., Applying the regression models to assess the influences of climate factors on forest fires (case study: Izeh). Journal of Natural Environment 2013, 66 (2), 191-201. (In Persian)
Amiri, T.; Banj Shafiei, A.; Erfanian, M.; Hosseinzadeh, O.; Beygi Heidarlou, H., Using forest fire experts’ opinions and GIS/remote sensing techniques in locating forest fire lookout towers. Applied Geomatics 2022, 15 (1), 45-59.
Beygi Heidarlou, H.; Banj Shafiei, A.; Erfanian, M.; Tayyebi, A.; Alijanpour, A., Armed conflict and land-use changes: Insights from Iraq-Iran war in Zagros forests. Forest Policy and Economics 2020 118, 102246.
Beygi Heidarlou, H.; Banj Shafiei, A.; Nasiri, V.; Niţă, M.D.; Borz, S.A., & Lopez-Carr, D., Impact of Iran’s Forest Nationalization Law on forest cover changes over six decades: A case study of a Zagros sparse coppice oak forest. Sensors 2023, 23 (2), 871.
Beygi Heidarlou, H.; Karamat Mirshekarlou, A.; Lopez-Carr, D.; Borz, S.A., Conservation policy and forest transition in Zagros forests: Statistical analysis of human welfare, biophysical, and climate drivers. Forest Policy and Economics 2024, 161, 103177.
Bowman, D.M.; Balch, J.K.; Artaxo, P.; Bond, W.J.; Carlson, J.M.; Cochrane, M.A.; d’Antonio, C.M.; DeFries, R.S.; Doyle, J.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Johnston, F.H., Fire in the Earth system. Science 2009, 324 (5926), 481-484.
Calviño-Cancela, M.; Chas-Amil, M. L.; García-Martínez, E.D.; Touza, J., Interacting effects of topography, vegetation, human activities and wildland-urban interfaces on wildfire ignition risk. Forest Ecology and Management 2017, 397, 10-17.
Canadell, J.G.; Meyer, C.P.; Cook, G.D.; Dowdy, A.; Briggs, P.R.; Knauer, J.; Pepler, A.; Haverd, V., Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change. Nature Communications 2021, 12 (1), p.6921.
Eastman JR., IDRISI Selva Tutorial. ClarkLabs, Clark University, Worcester, Ma, 2012; p 354.
Elmore, A.J.; Asner, G.P.; Hughes, R.F., Satellite monitoring of vegetation phenology and fire fuel conditions in Hawaiian drylands. Earth Interactions 2005, 9 (21), 1-21.
Esmaili, A.; Mousavi Mirkala, S.R.; Alijanpour, A.; Hajjarian, M.; Ghanbari, S., Investigation the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of Quercus brantii and estimating its fruit in Sardasht. Forest Research and Development 2023, 9 (3), 365-379. (In Persian)
Farajzadeh, M.; Fathnia, A.A.; Alijani, B.; Zeaiean, P., Assessment of climatic factors effect on vegetation in the Zagross region using satellite images. Iranian Journal of Range and Desert Research 2011, 18 (1), 107-123. (In Persian)
Farajzadeh, M.; Ghavidel Rahimi, Y.; Isvand Zibaei, F., Modeling the changes in vegetation greenness index with atmospheric precipitation in Zagros region. Natural Geography 2018, 11 (41): 1-17. (In Persian)
Flannigan, M.; Stocks, B.; Turetsky, M.; Wotton, M., Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest. Global Change Biology 2009, 15 (3), 549-560.
Garavand, S.; Yaralli, N.; Sadeghi, H., Spatial pattern and mapping fire risk occurrence at natural lands of Lorestan province. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research 2013, 21 (2), 231-242. (In Persian)
Jolly, W.M., Cochrane, M.A., Freeborn, P.H., Holden, Z.A., Brown, T.J., Williamson, G.J., Bowman, D.M., Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013. Nature Communications 2015, 6 (1), 7537.
Jones, M.W.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Veraverbeke, S.; Andela, N.; Lasslop, G.; Forkel, M.; Smith, A.J.; Burton, C.; Betts, R.A.; van der Werf, G.R.; Sitch, S., Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change. Reviews of Geophysics 2022, 60 (3), e2020RG000726.
Karamat Mirshekrlou, A.; Banj Shafiei, A.; Beygi Heidarlou, H., Modeling Forest Fire Behaviour in Controlled and Accidental Ignitions in Iranian Northern Zagros Forests, with an Emphasis on Fuel Load. Ecology of Iranian Forest 2023, 11 (21), 120-137. (In Persian)
Keyser, A.; Westerling, A.L., Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States. Environmental Research Letters 2017, 12 (6), 065003.
Liu, Y., Goodrick, S.L., & Stanturf, J.A., Future US wildfire potential trends projected using a dynamically downscaled climate change scenario. Forest Ecology and Management 2013, 294, 120-135.
Liu, Y.; Stanturf, J.; Goodrick, S., Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate. Forest Ecology and Management 2010, 259 (4), 685-697.
Millar, C.I.; Stephenson, N.L.; Stephens, S.L., Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 2007, 17 (8), 2145-2151.
Moradi, B.; Ravanbakhsh, H.; Meshki, A.; Shabanian, N., The effect of fire on vegetation structure in Zagros forests (Case Study: Sarvabad, Kurdistan province). Iranian Journal of Forest 2016, 8 (3), 381-392. (In Persian)
Moritz, M.A.; Batllori, E.; Bradstock, R.A.; Gill, A.M.; Handmer, J.; Hessburg, P.F.; Leonard, J.; McCaffrey, S.; Odion, D.C.; Schoennagel, T.; Syphard, A.D., Learning to coexist with wildfire. Nature 2014, 515 (7525), 58-66.
Myhre, G.; Alterskjær, K.; Stjern, C.W.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Marelle, L.; Samset, B.H.; Sillmann, J.; Schaller, N.; Fischer, E.; Schulz, M.; Stohl, A., Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming. Scientific Reports 2019, 9 (1), 16063.
Nitschke, C.R., Innes, J.L., Interactions between fire, climate change and forest biodiversity. CABI Reviews; 2007, p 9.
Pausas, J.G.; Keeley, J.E., Wildfires as an ecosystem service. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2019, 17 (5), 289-295.
Rogers, B.M.; Balch, J.K.; Goetz, S.J.; Lehmann, C.E.; Turetsky, M., Focus on changing fire regimes: interactions with climate, ecosystems, and society. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 15 (3), 030201.
Romano, N.; Ursino, N., Forest fire regime in a mediterranean ecosystem: Unraveling the mutual interrelations between rainfall seasonality, soil moisture, drought persistence, and biomass dynamics. Fire 2020, 3 (3), 49.
Salehi, P.; Banj Shafiei, A.; Barin, M.; Khezri, K., Effect of surface fire on dynamic of some chemico-physical properties of forest soil, Sardasht, West Azarbayjan. Forest Research and Development 2020, 6 (3), 395-410. (In Persian)
Schoennagel, T.; Balch, J.K.; Brenkert-Smith, H.; Dennison, P.E.; Harvey, B.J.; Krawchuk, M.A.; Mietkiewicz, N.; Morgan, P.; Moritz, M.A.; Rasker, R.; Turner, M.G., Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2017, 114 (18), 4582-4590.
Tranmer, M.; Elliot, M., Multiple linear regression. The Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research (CCSR) 2008, 5 (5), 1-5.
Trenberth, K.E., Climate change caused by human activities is happening and it already has major consequences. Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law 2018, 36 (4), 463-481.
Westerling, A.L.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Cayan, D.R.; Swetnam, T.W., Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science 2006, 313 (5789), 940-943.
Xu, X.; Jia, G.; Zhang, X.; Riley, W. J.; Xue, Y.; Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests. Global Change Biology 2020, 26 (10), 5874-5885.
Živanović, S.; Ivanović, R.; Nikolić, M.; Đokić, M.; Tošić, I., Influence of air temperature and precipitation on the risk of forest fires in Serbia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 2020, 132, 869-883.