نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی اهر، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
2 استادیار پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان آذربایجان شرقی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تبریز، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Background and Objective: Habitats are fundamental to the existence of plant life, and their preservation is crucial for ensuring sustainable development for the future. Habitat assessment models enable ecologists to gain a deeper understanding of the ecological requirements of various species and the limiting factors that constrain their populations. They also facilitate the prediction and design of conservation programs and the assessment of the effects of environmental factors, such as climate change. Furthermore, habitat assessment models allow researchers to assess the potential impacts of various environmental factors, such as climate change, on species and ecosystems. Foetid juniper (Juniperus foetidissima) habitats in the Arasbaran region face threats such as climate change, which impacts their development and reproduction. Assessing the influence of climate factors on their distribution is vital for effective conservation, long-term survival, and resilience.
Methodology: This study used the MaxEnt model with 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation data from the Worldclim database, available as a raster file, to predict the potential distribution of the species in the Arasbaran region under climatic conditions. Key environmental variables affecting species distribution were identified, and model performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and AUC (The area under the curve). The Jackknife test assessed the relative importance of environmental variables and their individual contributions. Analyses were performed in DIVA GIS and MaxEnt software environments.
Results: The model accurately predicted species presence and absence at a high accuracy level (AUC = 0.994). Jackknife test that revealed the relative importance of environmental variables in the MaxEnt model; The most influential bioclimatic variables were: mean temperature of driest quarter (BIO 9, 36 percent contribution, optimal value 25-30 °C) and precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO 19, 28.7 percent contribution, amount < 100 mm) respectively. These environmental variables were the most contribute to the model and had the greatest influence on the distribution of this species within its habitat.
Conclusion: This study indicates that climate determines the geographical range of Foetid juniper in the Arasbaran region. The species is sensitive to temperature and precipitation fluctuations; decreased mean temperature of the driest quarter and increased precipitation of the coldest quarter both reduce its distribution probability. Moisture availability is thus crucial for survival and depends on the ecological needs of the species. Similarly, optimal distribution depends on dry season temperature range, with temperatures lower or higher than the threshold decreasing distribution probability due to resource limitations affecting tree growth in mountainous areas. This study suggests that future climate change, will impact the habitat suitability and spatial distribution of this species. In conclusion, climate change will change the extent of its distribution. Addressing the impacts of climate change on species distribution is therefore crucial. Effective conservation strategies, alongside habitat conservation efforts such as soil and regeneration studies, are essential to preserve species and ecosystem balance in the face of inevitable climate change.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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