رخداد تغییر اقلیم براساس شاخص‌های دمایی سرد در اکوسیستم جنگلی زاگرس مرکزی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات بیابان موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور ،سازمان تحقیقات ،آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی ، تهران، ایران.

2 عضو هیئت علمی، بخش تحقیقات جنگل، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از فرض­های مطرح­شده درباره پدیده زوال جنگل، تغییر شاخص­های اقلیمی است. در این پژوهش، به­منظور آشکارسازی رخداد تغییر اقلیم در جنگل­های زاگرس مرکزی (استان چهارمحال و بختیاری) از شاخص­های دمایی سرد آشکارکننده تغییر اقلیم استفاده شد. داده­های اقلیمی روزانه شامل بارش، دمای بیشینه و دمای کمینه برای دوره آماری 1369-1398 در نزدیک­ترین ایستگاه­های سینوپتیک به سایت­های پایش زوال چیگو، قلعه­سماع، رحیم­آباد و گل­سفید استخراج شدند. پیش از محاسبه شاخص­ها، داده­های ورودی روزانه از نظر کیفیت و همگن­بودن بررسی شده و به فرمت مورد نظر برای ورود به نرم­افزار ClimPACT آماده شد. از بین شاخص­های استاندارد جهانی آشکارکننده رخداد تغییر اقلیم شاخص­های دمایی سرد، دو روز و دو شب متوالی سرد، تعداد روزهای همراه با یخبندان، تعداد روزهای یخی، درصد فراوانی شب­های سرد، درصد فراوانی روزهای سرد، دوره سرد دوروزه و دوره سرد شش­روزه استخراج و تحلیل شدند. تمام شاخص­های سرد آشکارکننده تغییر اقلیم روند کاهشی و معنی‌داری را نشان دادند و بیشترین کاهش را در دهه آخر به­ویژه سال­های 1396 و 1397 تجربه کردند. درصد کاهش شاخص­های دمایی سرد شبانه بیشتر از شاخص­های دمایی سرد روزانه بود. برخی از شاخص­ها در تمام سایت­های پایش زوال به­ویژه در دهه اخیر به­شدت کم و تاحدودی محو شدند و با توجه به تدوام افزایش دما در آینده احتمالاً تکرارناپذیر خواهند بود. آگاهی و شناخت رخداد تغییر اقلیم در اکوسیستم جنگلی زاگرس براساس شاخص­های استاندارد جهانی آشکارکننده رخداد تغییر اقلیم می­تواند به مدیریت حفظ و احیا جنگل از طریق روش­های سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Detection of climate change based on cold temperature indices in the forest ecosystem ‎of Central Zagros

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Dargahian 1
  • Mehdi Pourhashemi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and ‎Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, I. R. Iran
2 Associate Professor, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and ‎Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, I. R. Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the assumptions raised about the phenomenon of forest decline is the change of climatic indicators. In this study, in order to detect the occurrence of climate change in the ecosystem of Zagros forests of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, cold temperature indicators indicating climate change have been used. Daily climatic data including precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for the statistical period 1991-2019 were extracted at the nearest synoptic stations to the Chego, Ghalesama, Rahimaabad, and Gelsefid deterioration monitoring sites. Before calculating the indicators, daily input data were examined for quality and homogeneity and prepared in the desired format to enter ClimPACT software. Among the global standard indicators detecting the occurrence of climate change, cold temperature indicators; Two days and two nights consecutive cold, number of frosty days, number of icy days, percentage of cold nights frequency, percentage of cold days frequency, two-day cold period and 6-day cold period were extracted and analyzed. The results showed that all cold indicators of climate change had a significant and decreasing trend and experienced the largest decrease in the last decade, especially in 2017 and 2018. The percentage of decrease in cold night temperature indices is more than daily cold temperature indices. Some indicators in all deterioration monitoring sites, especially in the last decade, have been severely reduced to some extent and will probably be unrepeatable in the future due to the continued increase in temperature. Awareness and recognition of climate change in the Zagros Forest ecosystem based on standard indicators can help manage forest conservation and restoration through climate change adaptation methods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate adaptation
  • ClimPACT model
  • Forest conservation and restoration
  • Oak decline
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